Ishiba On the Ropes: A New Era of Political Uncertainty in Japan

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In an era characterized by the fall of incumbent politicians and parties, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) hangs on—barely.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was elected the head of a new minority government on November 11 after the LDP and its coalition partner Komeito suffered bruising losses in a snap election on October 27. The vote came only six weeks after Ishiba took office, replacing the deeply unpopular and scandal-plagued administration of former PM Fumio Kishida. Japanese voters penalized Ishiba’s LDP, relegating them to minority party status for the first time since 2012, and sending the election for prime minister within the National Diet, Japan’s legislature, to a runoff for the first time since 1994. Ishiba barely prevailed against Yoshihiko Noda, leader of the centrist opposition Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) of Japan, thanks to divisions between the CDP and other minority parties. In the election’s wake, the LDP has reached out to another centrist party, Yuichiro Tamaki’s Democratic Party for the People (DPP), for potential vote-by-vote assistance in governing.

The loss of the election raises questions about Ishiba’s future, as he must now govern from a position of unpopularity while dealing with a spate of issues abroad, from the political return of former U.S. President Donald Trump to increased Chinese and Russian aggression. He will likely struggle to gain the support of parties outside his coalition in doing so. While Ishiba has vowed to “humbly accept” the results of the election, there is no denying the difficulty that the LDP’s minority status will pose to the administration in the months ahead.

The End of LDP Dominance

The Liberal Democratic Party has held power almost without interruption since Japan’s postwar democratization. The country’s 1947 constitution was shaped by the Allied Powers, primarily the United States, and wholly replaced an 1889 Meiji-era document despite Japanese efforts only to amend it. The new constitution retained the institution of the emperor, created an entirely new military labeled the Self-Defense Forces while preventing the return of military government, promised democratic freedoms, and vastly expanded women’s rights. 

In the first several years of Japanese democracy, the political situation was extremely fluid, as parties winked in and out of existence and the still-occupant Allied Forces intervened frequently. It was not until 1955, a full decade after the end of World War II, that an alliance of conservative parties came together to form what became known as the Liberal Democratic Party, claiming to be in favor of democracy, peace, and the public welfare. It went on to defeat the opposing Socialist Party decisively the following year, and established its first government under Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama.

The LDP quickly developed into the most powerful party in Japan. With little competition, its members were pitted against each other, organizing into intraparty factions due to multi-member districts, but the party remained united enough to control the Japanese government without interruption until 1993, when it lost power to a coalition government of seven opposing parties. Upon taking power, the coalition passed a series of political reforms altering the Diet’s structure, combining 300 single-member districts with 200 proportionally represented seats in an attempt to prevent future LDP dominance. However, the LDP retook a majority soon after, which it retained until the 2009 elections  gave the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) total control of the legislature.

In 2012, the LDP under former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe seized a majority once again by capitalizing on disappointment within Japan over the DPJ government’s handling of the 2011 Tohoku Earthquake, and the subsequent Fukushima nuclear disaster. In 2021, Fumio Kishida succeeded Abe atop the LDP and as PM, promising to burnish Japan’s diplomatic record abroad while tackling the high cost of living at home.

The Fall of Kishida

While Kishida’s premiership was well-received internationally, he faced persistent domestic challenges that contributed to a quick drop in popularity. Abroad, the Prime Minister successfully deepened Japan’s ties to the United States, increasing its defense budget, and worked with South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol to overcome historical animosity between the neighboring states. Yet, domestically, Kishida was viewed as indecisive in overcoming post-pandemic inflation; simultaneously, his support for keeping interest rates low weakened the yen in monetary exchange markets, negatively impacting the price of imports. Kishida was also criticized for waiting until May of 2024 to finally propose a formal immigration policy, a notable omission given  Japan’s crisis of shrinking population and worker shortages. His eventual proposal to revoke some foreigners’ permanent residence permits in a transition away from Japan’s existing technical intern program only further forced Kishida on the defensive.

Then, in July of 2022, the assassination of Shinzo Abe, Japan’s longest-serving PM, rocked a nation unused to gun violence. Abe had been delivering a speech outside a train station in Nara when the assailant shot him with a homemade weapon. Subsequent reports that the perpetrator had sought vengeance against the Unification Church only contributed to further upheaval as more information about the predatory religious group’s LDP ties surfaced in the aftermath of the shooting, provoking anger towards Kishida and other top officials of the LDP.

A second major scandal broke out in November 2023 over discrepancies in LDP fundraising. Dozens of lawmakers from several intraparty factions were accused of intentionally underreporting the revenue they raised from the sale of tickets to political fundraisers, and then placing the excess into hidden slush funds. The revelations exposed significant loopholes in Japan’s Political Funds Control Law and led to the indictment of multiple LDP officials, including several Cabinet members. In the wake of these events, several other scandals broke out regarding the misconduct of a few officials, including an affair and the use of party funds to pay for erotic dancers. All this led to a precipitous drop in support for Kishida and his party.

In response to the firestorm, Kishida moved quickly to dissolve his own faction to forestall criticism, and several LDP leaders followed suit. However, many lawmakers accused of receiving kickbacks went unpunished, and a fundraising law passed in June 2024 designed to prevent future abuses did not fully close the loopholes that had caused the problem. Much of the Japanese public has also questioned how well the new policies will actually be enforced. In a January 2024 poll, 72% of the public said they believed that dissolving factions would not lead to significant reform, and another survey that same month gave the LDP an approval rating of just 14.5%. Faced with few options, Kishida announced on October 14, 2024, that he would not run for reelection as the LDP’s party president.

The Rise of Ishiba in the LDP

Kishida stepping down led to a record nine candidates announcing bids to lead the LDP, in an election limited to lawmakers and selected grassroots party members. All candidates were, or had been, Cabinet members, and three quickly topped opinion polls: former Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba, Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi, and Economic Security Minister Sanae Takaichi. Ishiba was quick to distinguish himself by supporting a renewable energy transition and allowing the succession of female emperors; Koizumi called for a tech-savvy economic policy and promised to tackle the LDP’s corruption; and Takaichi presented herself as the conservative candidate, supporting revisions to Japan’s postwar constitution and opposing women for keeping their maiden names after marriage.

The race came down to the margins. In the first round, Takaichi won 181 votes to Ishiba’s 154. Given that neither won a majority, the race proceeded to a runoff over the other seven candidates. There, Ishiba was able to prevail narrowly against Takaichi, with 215 votes to her 194. The win marked his fifth bid to become the LDP’s president. In a post-vote press conference, Ishiba stuck to his campaign slogan, vowing to “protect the rules, to protect Japan, and to protect the people.” As the leader of the majority party, Ishiba was elected prime minister by the Diet on October 1.

Following the contentious contest, Ishiba was quick to name several of the candidates he had bested to Cabinet posts, including Koizumi as head of the party’s elections committee. Local media reported that Takaichi was offered a post as well, but declined. Other picks indicated a desire for continuity, such as the choice of former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga as party vice president. Amidst promises of reform, the Prime Minister included only two women in his twenty-person Cabinet, drawing some criticism.

However, Ishiba did keep true to another promise: an early election. Within about a week of assuming the premiership, the Prime Minister dissolved the Diet’s lower house in preparation for an October 27 snap election. Ishiba sought to take advantage of the honeymoon period usually observed following a leadership transition, highlighted by a statement from him at a news conference: “Without the people’s understanding and empathy, politics will not move forward.” His call came far ahead of the constitutional deadline to call an election, which would have been by October 2025, and set the stage for a quick campaign.

Another Loss for the LDP

Even before results were released, signs pointed to trouble for the LDP. A Kyodo News Poll published on October 17 showed the LDP leading in only about half of Japan’s single-seat districts, and projected they would lose several proportionally-appointed seats. However, the race still appeared close: other polls indicated that the LDP retained a higher share of support than its main opposition, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP). There was intense speculation about a potential coalition reshuffle that could be necessary if the LDP and its partner, Komeito, lost their majority.

As it turns out, trouble did emerge for them. On October 27, the LDP saw a precipitous drop in its support, falling by 62 seats from 259 to 197; Komeito lost 8 of its 32 seats, and its leader was voted out of office. Meanwhile, the opposition made significant gains. The CDP rose to 148 seats from 96, and the DPP rose to 28 seats from 11, becoming the fourth-largest in the Diet. Immediately after the vote, CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda announced that he would seek support from other opposition parties to topple Ishiba.

However, Noda’s quest was brought to a halt when several smaller parties announced they would not support his bid for the premiership. As a result, Ishiba was able to hang on as the country’s prime minister, winning 221 votes in the lower house to Noda’s 160 as the head of a new minority government. The election took two rounds to decide, the first such vote in about three decades. Despite Ishiba’s win, opposition parties were able to secure control of 12 out of 27 steering committees in the lower house, a major win; before the October 27 election, they controlled just three.

The opposition wasn’t the only group that gained, either. The election also saw a record number of women elected to the Diet: 73 in total, about 16% of the body. Though this is the highest share of female-represented seats in Japanese history, it remains low compared to other developed countries, and a significant share of female candidates continue to face discrimination and sexist comments. Yet there was real hope for the future. Hanako Okada, a recently elected MP from Aomori prefecture, said in an interview with the New York Times that she wanted to use her position to change the culture of Japan’s government, and ensure that “people in [the] region have more hope.”

The Future

Left with greatly diminished power, Ishiba’s fate remains uncertain. Some worry that the election may herald the return of so-called “revolving door leadership” and a quick succession of prime ministers, destabilizing the nation. For now, though, the PM has forged ahead, meeting with the Chinese leader Xi Jinping only days after his reelection. The new year is expected to bring more challenges, with Donald Trump set to upend global norms as U.S. president and India poised to overtake Japan as the world’s fourth-largest economy. Meanwhile, Ishiba has vowed to fulfill his promises of political reform, naming it a priority for his minority government. Against the odds, he still remains in power; whether he can hold onto it, though, is another matter.

References

(To be published soon.)